East Carolina vs. Memphis (8:00pm on ESPN2)
The only bright spot going for Memphis is their half back Curtis Steele. Unfortunately he'll face a rush defense ranked 29th. Although ECU's rush defense is a little over valued as they have played an average 78th rushing attack they still have been solid inside C-USA play and have a pretty good rushing attack themselves. If HB Dominique Lindsay who is questionable with an ankle can go I am very confident in ECU's ability to run the ball better than Memphis. The reason is the defensive line for ECU is far better than Memphis defensive line. Both teams possess a veteran offensive line, but the difference maker in this game will be the defensive line.
Memphis and ECU have had two common opponents UCF and Marshall. ECU beat both teams while Memphis lost to both and were out gained on the ground by a total of 318 yards, while ECU out gained UCF by 40 and were out gained by just 24 in a win over Marshall. ECU is the better team and although I normally like the under dogs in games like this one I feel that ECU found it's confidence and has all the momentum after their last win against Rice. ECU has one of the more talented front seven's in C-USA with C.J. Wilson on the outside and Joseph and Ross on the inside. Most of Steele's 371 rushing yards came against a UTEP team ranked 112th in rush defense. Steele is good, but Lindsay is not that far off and ECU has the better defensive line that will make the difference.
Another major advantage which will be the X-factor in this game is special teams. ECU has a distinct advantage here. Memphis gave up 33 yards per kick return and 26.5 per punt return and a TD last week. They rank near the bottom of the league in most special teams categories, 8th in kick coverage, 11th in kick returns and 12th in punt returns. There are just six teams in the nation with a lower punt return average than Memphis. While ECU on the other side had Dwayne Harris take one back for the 2nd straight week, and their punter Dodge is 13th in the nation in punt yardage and the coverage units have done a nice job. This should tilt the field in ECU's favor all night.
Another stat is ECU's ability to create turnovers as their secondary has 10 turnovers to Memphis' 6. They have some special coverages designed for the Tigers tall receivers and should make the changes needed in the extra time off that has burned them for giving up long passes in the passing game. ECU's pass defense is better than they are getting credit for. Actually the Pirates have scored 44 non-offensive TD's since 99 which ranks 15th in the nation. What else is very impressive is this defense is 10th nationally with 17 forced turnovers this season and they have held their opponents in the last two games to a 26.9% third down success rate. Both SMU and Rice could not convert on a third down of more than five yards. If they can stop Steele on first down this is the advantage ECU will have over Memphis and an inexperienced QB in Hodge who is their 3rd QB this year.
